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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
67/100
Strong
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
71/100
Dalio Risk ?
92/100
Piotroski ?
4/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
HK$74.2
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
83/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Güçlü (83/100)
Temel göstergelerin büyük çoğunluğu pozitif. Kârlılık, büyüme ve değerleme açısından güçlü görünüm. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 7 | Negatif: 0 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$1.9B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+28.0 arttı (HK$1.5B → HK$1.9B). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Yüksek Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı %24.6. Her 100HK$ satıştan 25HK$ kâr kalıyor.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından HK$9.9B fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Güçlü Nakit Üretimi
Serbest nakit akışı (HK$1.8B) kârın %94'sini nakit olarak üretiyor. Kâr kalitesi yüksek.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+30.3 arttı (HK$1.9B → HK$2.4B). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Makul F/K
Trailing F/K: 12.5. Makul değerleme aralığında.
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
176 days
Annual Volatility ?
%54.3
VaR 95% ?
%5.97
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%8.30
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%7.37
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%58.4
04.02.2026 → 22.10.2026
Skewness ?
0.47
Parametrik%5.97
Historik%5.41
Cornish-Fisher%5.41
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+2.4%
ROIC ?
39.1%
DCF Value ?
161.38
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %+28.0 artarak 1.9B HKD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+15.4
Hasılat çeyreklik %+11.3 büyüdü (7.7B HKD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+11.3)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %49.7
Brüt marj değişimi: %+2.8 puan
Net kâr marjı yüksek: %24.6
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+30.3 büyüdü (2.4B HKD)
FAVÖK marjı güçlü: %31.7
Toplam borç %-16.1 azaldı → 7.1B HKD
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -9.9B HKD (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.31x
Cari oran: 1.58x — yeterli likidite
Nakit ve benzerleri: 17.0B HKD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 6.9B HKD
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 1.8B HKD
ROE: %8.3
ROA: %4.5
Toplam varlıklar: 42.0B HKD (%-2.9)
Özkaynak: 22.9B HKD (%-4.8)
İşletme kârı pozitif: 2.2B HKD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+20.9
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 91.8x (Faiz: 26.6M HKD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 734.2M HKD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 10.7B HKD
CAPEX: 627.8M HKD (Hasılatın %8.2'i)
Son 5 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-13.4 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 108.59 HKD
Likit varlık ağırlığı yüksek: Dönen varlıklar toplam varlıkların %70'i
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%24.6
Net profit margin %24.6 — very strong. Compared to previous quarter +3.2 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%17.6
ROE %17.6 — moderate return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%31.7
EBITDA margin %31.7 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%49.7
Gross profit per revenue %49.7. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%20.4
TTM Free Cash Flow is %20.4'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.5x
Sector: 12.4x
F/K 12.5x — sector median's (12.4x) %1 above. Slight premium.
P/B Ratio
3.02x
Sector: 1.54x
PD/DD 3.02x — sector median's %96 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
8.0x
Sector: 7.2x
EV/EBITDA 8.0x — sector median's (7.2x) %10 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.58x
Current ratio 1.58x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.0x
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.0x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.31x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
65.6x
Interest coverage 65.6x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+11.3
Revenue YoY %11.3 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+15.4
Net profit YoY %15.4 increased — positive but moderate growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
67/100
Good robustness (67/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+2.4%
Plus %2.4 expected value (96.32) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 101.74 | P/B target: 51.86 | EV/EBITDA target: 85.26 | DCF target: 161.38
Damodaran Valuation
71/100
Strong Damodaran valuation (71/100). ROIC (%39.1) exceeds cost of capital, company creates value.
Strong
Dalio Risk Analysis
92/100
Low debt risk (92/100). Interest coverage ratio 65.6x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 1.0x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 90/100 | Debt Service: 89/100 | Quality: 100/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%39.1
ROIC (%39.1) cost of capital 29.2 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %9.8
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
161.38
DCF modeli 161.38 target value produced — compared to current price %71.6 undervalued.
Current price: 94.05
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
Weak Piotroski (4/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$74.2
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
12.5x
vs 12.4x
Sector median's %1 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
3.02x
vs 1.54x
Compared to sector %96 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
8.0x
vs 7.2x
Compared to sector %10 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%39.1
vs %9.8 WACC
ROIC 29.2 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%22.0
vs %28.2 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %22.0
TRAMA-99 Trend — Downtrend
Price (94.05), TRAMA-99 line's %13.4 below. Downtrend ongoing — technical outlook negative. Pressure may continue until TRAMA is broken above.
Price:: 94.05
TRAMA: 108.59
Difference: %-13.4
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
9980 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.