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9973Chery Automobile Co., Ltd.

Dayanıklı Tüketim
🇭🇰 Hong Kong Borsası
23.38
HKD
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
77/100
Very Strong
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
78/100
Dalio Risk ?
78/100
Piotroski ?
7/9
Strong
Graham ?
HK$29.8
Makul
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
77/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Güçlü (77/100)
Temel göstergelerin büyük çoğunluğu pozitif. Kârlılık, büyüme ve değerleme açısından güçlü görünüm. | Kısa Vade: Nötr | Uzun Vade: Olumlu | Pozitif: 6 | Negatif: 1 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$5.5B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+0.0). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+31.8 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından HK$31.6B fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Kârlı ama Nakit Üretemiyor
Net kâr pozitif (HK$5.5B) ama FCF negatif (-HK$1.5B). Yatırım harcamaları yüksek veya alacak birikimi var.
Çok Düşük F/K
Trailing F/K: 6.1. Piyasa şirketi kârına göre düşük fiyatlıyor. Ucuz görünüyor ama sebebi araştırılmalı.
Düşük EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 3.0. Operasyonel kârlılığa göre ucuz değerleme.
Lothien Sağlamlık Skoru: 77/100
Bileşik algoritma değerlendirmesine göre şirketin finansal yapısı güçlü görünüyor.

Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Method How the scores are computed · Scorecard
Data date 2026-10-23
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%38.0
VaR 95% ?
%4.02
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%5.65
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%4.52
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%31.5
22.04.2026 → 22.10.2026
Skewness ?
1.37
Parametrik%4.02
Historik%3.59
Cornish-Fisher%2.68
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+43.8%
ROIC ?
52.7%
DCF Value ?
27.25
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Son 6 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-15.4 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 27.64 HKD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin %5.9
Net profit margin %5.9 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %18.4
ROE %18.4 — moderate return on equity.
EBITDA Margin %9.0
EBITDA margin %9.0 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin %14.5
Gross profit per revenue %14.5. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %1.8
TTM Free Cash Flow is %1.8'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 6.1x Sector: 10.8x
F/K 6.1x — sector median's (10.8x) %44 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio 2.28x Sector: 1.60x
PD/DD 2.28x — sector median's (1.60x) %42 above.
EV/EBITDA 3.0x Sector: 7.4x
EV/EBITDA 3.0x — sector median's (7.4x) %59 below. Cheap relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 1.05x
Current ratio 1.05x — borderline, attention required.
Net Debt / EBITDA 0.7x
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.7x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity 0.40x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage 16.3x
Interest coverage 16.3x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+17.6
Revenue YoY %17.6 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %+31.8
Net profit YoY %31.8 increased — strong profit growth.
Seasonality Analysis Q2 (Nis-Haz)
Historically strongest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit 5.0B). Weakest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit 4.8B).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
77/100
Very strong robustness score (77/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Very Strong
Potential
+43.8%
Plus %43.8 expected value (33.61) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 42.43 | P/B target: 18.07 | EV/EBITDA target: 57.28 | DCF target: 27.25
Damodaran Valuation
78/100
Strong Damodaran valuation (78/100). ROIC (%52.7) exceeds cost of capital, company creates value.
Strong
Dalio Risk Analysis
78/100
Low debt risk (78/100). Interest coverage ratio 16.3x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 0.7x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 87/100 | Debt Service: 76/100 | Quality: 86/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%52.7
ROIC (%52.7) cost of capital 43.1 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %9.6
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
27.25
DCF (27.25) near current price (%+16.6) near — in fair value zone.
Current price: 23.38
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
7/9
Strong Piotroski F-Score (7/9). Profitability, leverage and operational efficiency criteria are largely met.
Strong
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$29.8
Graham intrinsic value: HK$29.8. Makul
Reasonable
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
6.1x vs 10.8x
Sector median's %44 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
2.28x vs 1.60x
Compared to sector %42 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
3.0x vs 7.4x
Compared to sector %59 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%52.7 vs %9.6 WACC
ROIC 43.1 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%6.3 vs %9.8 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %6.3
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (23.38), TRAMA-99 line's %15.4 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 23.38
TRAMA: 27.64
Difference: %-15.4
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
9973 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.