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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
61/100
Strong
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
52/100
Dalio Risk ?
68/100
Piotroski ?
2/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
HK$20.8
Makul
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
49/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Orta (49/100)
Karışık sinyaller. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz göstergeler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 4 | Negatif: 6 | Nötr: 0
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$270M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+1395.6 arttı (HK$18M → HK$270M). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %+46.7 arttı (HK$8.9B → HK$13.0B). Talep güçlü.
Çok Düşük Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı sadece %2.1. Küçük bir maliyet artışı şirketi zarara sokabilir.
Borç Hızla Artıyor
Toplam borç çeyreklik %+44.4 arttı. Finansman maliyetleri yükselir.
Kârlı ama Nakit Üretemiyor
Net kâr pozitif (HK$270M) ama FCF negatif (-HK$413M). Yatırım harcamaları yüksek veya alacak birikimi var.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+1699.4 arttı (HK$16M → HK$281M). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 18.4. Pahalı değerleme.
Düşük ROE
ROE: %4.5. Sermaye getirisi yetersiz — enflasyonun altında.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-21.8 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
184 days
Annual Volatility ?
%59.6
VaR 95% ?
%6.35
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%8.91
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%7.46
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%42.8
22.01.2026 → 15.10.2026
Skewness ?
0.39
Parametrik%6.35
Historik%5.54
Cornish-Fisher%5.85
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+48.2%
ROIC ?
2.2%
DCF Value ?
139.01
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %+1395.6 artarak 269.9M HKD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+14.4
Hasılat çeyreklik %+46.7 büyüdü (13.0B HKD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi ılımlı (%+5.4)
Brüt kâr marjı düşük: %9.7
Net kâr marjı düşük: %2.1
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+1699.4 büyüdü (281.0M HKD)
FAVÖK marjı düşük: %2.2
Toplam borç %+44.4 arttı → 6.8B HKD
Net borç: 1.8B HKD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı: 0.79x
Cari oran: 1.11x — yeterli likidite
Nakit %-17.1 azaldı → 5.0B HKD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 597.8M HKD
Serbest nakit akışı negatif: -413.1M HKD — yatırımlar nakdi aşıyor
ROE düşük: %3.2
ROA düşük: %0.8
Toplam varlıklar %+18.7 büyüdü → 35.6B HKD
Özkaynak: 8.6B HKD (%+1.2)
İşletme kârı pozitif: 92.5M HKD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+29288.0
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 8.4x (Faiz: 33.4M HKD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 522.6M HKD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 2.7B HKD
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %-6.4
CAPEX: 373.9M HKD (Hasılatın %2.9'i)
Son 5 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-8.8 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 22.65 HKD
Likit varlık ağırlığı yüksek: Dönen varlıklar toplam varlıkların %76'i
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%2.1
Net profit margin %2.1 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +1.9 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%4.5
ROE %4.5 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%2.2
EBITDA margin %2.2 — low but positive.
Gross Profit Margin
%9.7
Gross profit per revenue %9.7. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-1.7
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-1.7'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
21.4x
Sector: 18.5x
F/K 21.4x — sector median's (18.5x) %15 above. Slight premium.
P/B Ratio
1.26x
Sector: 2.25x
PD/DD 1.26x — sector median's (2.25x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA
18.4x
Sector: 10.9x
EV/EBITDA 18.4x — sector median's (10.9x) %69 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.11x
Current ratio 1.11x — borderline, attention required.
Net Debt / EBITDA
10.0x
Net Debt/EBITDA 10.0x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity
0.79x
Debt/Equity 0.79x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
7.5x
Interest coverage 7.5x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+5.4
Revenue YoY %5.4 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+14.4
Net profit YoY %14.4 increased — positive but moderate growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
61/100
Good robustness (61/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+48.2%
Plus %48.2 expected value (30.62) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 20.92 | P/B target: 37.78 | EV/EBITDA target: 12.23 | DCF target: 61.98
Damodaran Valuation
52/100
Moderate Damodaran score (52/100). ROIC (%2.2) – WACC (%8.3) difference -6.1 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
68/100
Moderate debt risk (68/100). Interest coverage ratio 7.5x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 10.0x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 30/100 | Debt Service: 78/100 | Quality: 66/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%2.2
ROIC (%2.2) cost of capital (8.3%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %8.3
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
139.01
DCF modeli 139.01 target value produced — compared to current price %572.8 undervalued.
Current price: 20.66
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
Weak Piotroski (2/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$20.8
Graham intrinsic value: HK$20.8. Makul
Reasonable
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
21.4x
vs 18.5x
Sector median's %15 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
1.26x
vs 2.25x
Compared to sector %44 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
18.4x
vs 10.9x
Compared to sector %69 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%2.2
vs %8.3 WACC
ROIC 6.1 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%1.3
vs %1.5 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %1.3
TRAMA-99 Trend — Downtrend
Price (20.66), TRAMA-99 line's %8.8 below. Downtrend ongoing — technical outlook negative. Pressure may continue until TRAMA is broken above.
Price:: 20.66
TRAMA: 22.65
Difference: %-8.8
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
9611 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.