7861

🇹🇼 Tayvan Borsası
982.00
TWD
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
50/100
Moderate
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
47/100
Dalio Risk ?
91/100
Piotroski ?
N/A
Yetersiz çeyrek verisi: 4 mevcut, en az 5 gerekli
Graham ?
NT$189.0
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
72%
Lothien Robustness Summary
83/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Güçlü (83/100)
Temel göstergelerin büyük çoğunluğu pozitif. Kârlılık, büyüme ve değerleme açısından güçlü görünüm. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Olumlu | Pozitif: 9 | Negatif: 2 | Nötr: 2
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte NT$780M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+11.9). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+343.5 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %+28.0 arttı (NT$2.2B → NT$2.8B). Talep güçlü.
Yıllık Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Yıllık hasılat %+159.2 arttı. Şirket büyüyor.
Brüt Marj Daraldı
Brüt kâr marjı %57.2 → %51.3 (-5.9 puan). Maliyet baskısı veya rekabet artıyor.
Yüksek Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı %27.6. Her 100NT$ satıştan 28NT$ kâr kalıyor.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından NT$646M fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 16.93. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 23.8. Pahalı değerleme.
Yüksek ROE
Özkaynak getirisi (ROE): %44.7. Sermaye verimli kullanılıyor.
Özkaynak Büyümesi
Özkaynak çeyreklik %+27.3 arttı. Şirket içsel birikimle güçleniyor.

Data date 2026-10-22 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-22
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Çok Yüksek
227 days
Annual Volatility ?
%63.9
VaR 95% ?
%6.04
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%8.79
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%6.25
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%36.8
27.05.2026 → 30.07.2026
Skewness ?
1.05
Parametrik%6.04
Historik%4.56
Cornish-Fisher%4.61
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-33.3%
ROIC ?
60.6%
DCF Value ?
145.65
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %+11.9 artarak 779.5M TWD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+343.5
Hasılat çeyreklik %+28.0 büyüdü (2.8B TWD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+159.2)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %51.3
Brüt marj değişimi: %-5.9 puan
Net kâr marjı yüksek: %27.6
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+11.7 büyüdü (1.1B TWD)
FAVÖK marjı güçlü: %38.6
Toplam borç %+20.3 arttı → 1.4B TWD
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -645.7M TWD (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.39x
Cari oran: 1.35x — yeterli likidite
Nakit %+42.7 arttı → 2.1B TWD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 582.7M TWD
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 389.9M TWD
ROE yüksek: %21.1 — özkaynak verimli kullanılıyor
ROA: %7.8
Toplam varlıklar %+20.3 büyüdü → 10.0B TWD
Özkaynak %+27.3 arttı → 3.7B TWD
İşletme kârı pozitif: 1.0B TWD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+16.5
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 403.2x (Faiz: 2.7M TWD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 64.6M TWD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 1.9B TWD
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %+44.6
CAPEX: 192.9M TWD (Hasılatın %6.8'i)
Son 4 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-5.1 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 1034.26 TWD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin %27.6
Net profit margin %27.6 — very strong. Compared to previous quarter -4.0 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %44.7
ROE %44.7 — high return on equity.
EBITDA Margin %38.6
EBITDA margin %38.6 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin %51.3
Gross profit per revenue %51.3. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %10.9
TTM Free Cash Flow is %10.9'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 21.2x Sector: 27.4x
F/K 21.2x — sector median (27.4x) near reasonable levels.
P/B Ratio 16.93x Sector: 3.45x
PD/DD 16.93x — sector median's %391 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA 23.8x Sector: 14.9x
EV/EBITDA 23.8x — sector median's (14.9x) %59 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 1.35x
Current ratio 1.35x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA 0.6x
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.6x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity 0.39x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage 68.9x
Interest coverage 68.9x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+159.2
Revenue YoY %159.2 grew (2026/6) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %+343.5
Net profit YoY %343.5 increased (2026/6) — extraordinary profit growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
50/100
Moderate robustness (50/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-33.3%
Minus %33.3 expected value (647.03) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 995.53 | P/B target: 242.50 | EV/EBITDA target: 609.15 | DCF target: 242.50
Damodaran Valuation
47/100
Low Damodaran score (47/100). DCF analysis does not support current price.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
91/100
Low debt risk (91/100). Interest coverage ratio 68.9x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 0.6x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 85/100 | Debt Service: 84/100 | Quality: 92/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%60.6
ROIC (%60.6) cost of capital 47.7 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %13.0
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
145.65
DCF (145.65) current price %85.0 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 970.00
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
—
Graham Intrinsic Value
NT$189.0
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
21.2x vs 27.4x
Sector median's %23 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
16.93x vs 3.45x
Compared to sector %391 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
23.8x vs 14.9x
Compared to sector %59 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%60.6 vs %13.0 WACC
ROIC 47.7 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%26.1 vs %38.1 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %26.1
TRAMA-99 Trend — Downtrend
Price (982.00), TRAMA-99 line's %5.1 below. Downtrend ongoing — technical outlook negative. Pressure may continue until TRAMA is broken above.
Price:: 982.00
TRAMA: 1034.26
Difference: %-5.1
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
7861 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.