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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
69/100
Strong
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
55/100
Dalio Risk ?
82/100
Piotroski ?
3/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
NT$166.6
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
75/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Güçlü (75/100)
Temel göstergelerin büyük çoğunluğu pozitif. Kârlılık, büyüme ve değerleme açısından güçlü görünüm. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 6 | Negatif: 2 | Nötr: 0
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte NT$161M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+20.3 arttı (NT$134M → NT$161M). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+132.8 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından NT$9.1B fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Kârlı ama Nakit Üretemiyor
Net kâr pozitif (NT$161M) ama FCF negatif (-NT$578M). Yatırım harcamaları yüksek veya alacak birikimi var.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+25.3 arttı (NT$245M → NT$307M). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 31.4. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Data date 2026-10-22 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-22
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%42.2
VaR 95% ?
%4.69
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%6.50
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%5.57
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%58.2
09.10.2025 → 22.10.2026
Skewness ?
0.89
Parametrik%4.69
Historik%4.25
Cornish-Fisher%3.77
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+32.0%
ROIC ?
19.1%
DCF Value ?
192.69
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %+20.3 artarak 161.4M TWD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+132.8
Hasılat çeyreklik yatay kaldı (2.1B TWD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+14.3)
Brüt kâr marjı: %25.3
Brüt marj değişimi: %+2.1 puan
Net kâr marjı: %7.6
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+25.3 büyüdü (307.5M TWD)
FAVÖK marjı: %14.4
Toplam borç: 739.4M TWD
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -9.1B TWD (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.07x
Cari oran: 1.82x — yeterli likidite
Nakit ve benzerleri: 9.8B TWD
İşletme nakit akışı negatif: -555.0M TWD
Serbest nakit akışı negatif: -578.4M TWD — yatırımlar nakdi aşıyor
ROE düşük: %1.5
ROA düşük: %0.6
Toplam varlıklar %+5.7 büyüdü → 25.3B TWD
Özkaynak: 11.0B TWD (%+1.5)
İşletme kârı pozitif: 162.2M TWD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+48.8
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 59.9x (Faiz: 5.1M TWD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 71.4M TWD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 10.7B TWD
CAPEX: 23.3M TWD (Hasılatın %1.1'i)
Son 6 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-13.0 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 286.18 TWD
Likit varlık ağırlığı yüksek: Dönen varlıklar toplam varlıkların %94'i
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%7.6
Net profit margin %7.6 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +1.2 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%5.2
ROE %5.2 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%14.4
EBITDA margin %14.4 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%25.3
Gross profit per revenue %25.3. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-7.4
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-7.4'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
31.4x
Sector: 26.4x
F/K 31.4x — sector median's (26.4x) %19 above. Slight premium.
P/B Ratio
1.63x
Sector: 3.85x
PD/DD 1.63x — sector median's (3.85x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA
8.4x
Sector: 14.5x
EV/EBITDA 8.4x — sector median's (14.5x) %42 below. Cheap relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.82x
Current ratio 1.82x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.7x
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.7x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.07x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
48.4x
Interest coverage 48.4x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+14.3
Revenue YoY %14.3 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+132.8
Net profit YoY %132.8 increased (2026/6) — extraordinary profit growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
69/100
Good robustness (69/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+32.0%
Plus %32.0 expected value (331.22) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 203.41 | P/B target: 602.22 | EV/EBITDA target: 431.39 | DCF target: 192.69
Damodaran Valuation
55/100
Moderate Damodaran score (55/100). ROIC (%19.1) – WACC (%11.7) difference +7.4 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
82/100
Low debt risk (82/100). Interest coverage ratio 48.4x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 0.7x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 95/100 | Debt Service: 95/100 | Quality: 76/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%19.1
ROIC (%19.1) cost of capital 7.4 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %11.7
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
192.69
DCF (192.69) current price %23.2 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 251.00
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Weak Piotroski (3/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
NT$166.6
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
31.4x
vs 26.4x
Sector median's %19 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
1.63x
vs 3.85x
Compared to sector %58 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
8.4x
vs 14.5x
Compared to sector %42 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%19.1
vs %11.7 WACC
ROIC 7.4 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%6.8
vs %12.5 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %6.8
TRAMA-99 Trend — Downtrend
Price (249.00), TRAMA-99 line's %13.0 below. Downtrend ongoing — technical outlook negative. Pressure may continue until TRAMA is broken above.
Price:: 249.00
TRAMA: 286.18
Difference: %-13.0
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
7722 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.