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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
51/100
Moderate
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
51/100
Dalio Risk ?
90/100
Piotroski ?
2/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
NT$196.7
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
69/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Güçlü (69/100)
Genel tablo olumlu. Finansal yapı sağlam, bazı riskler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Olumlu | Pozitif: 7 | Negatif: 5 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte NT$685M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+26.9 arttı (NT$540M → NT$685M). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+234.6 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
4 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 4 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Hasılat Geriledi
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %-23.3 düştü. Talep zayıflıyor veya mevsimsel etki var.
Brüt Marj Genişliyor
Brüt kâr marjı %12.4 → %18.9 (+6.6 puan). Fiyatlama gücü artıyor veya maliyetler düşüyor.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından NT$107M fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Borç Hızla Artıyor
Toplam borç çeyreklik %+4181.7 arttı. Finansman maliyetleri yükselir.
Kârlı ama Nakit Üretemiyor
Net kâr pozitif (NT$685M) ama FCF negatif (-NT$2.7B). Yatırım harcamaları yüksek veya alacak birikimi var.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 7.66. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 20.1. Pahalı değerleme.
Yüksek ROE
Özkaynak getirisi (ROE): %32.0. Sermaye verimli kullanılıyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-21.2 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date 2026-10-22 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-22
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%74.8
VaR 95% ?
%7.56
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%10.77
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%9.51
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%63.8
27.10.2025 → 09.03.2026
Skewness ?
-0.49
Parametrik%7.56
Historik%5.66
Cornish-Fisher%7.42
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-20.4%
ROIC ?
34.2%
DCF Value ?
255.76
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %+26.9 artarak 685.1M TWD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+234.6
Hasılat çeyreklik %-23.3 düştü (6.8B TWD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+9.2)
Brüt kâr marjı düşük: %18.9
Brüt marj değişimi: %+6.6 puan
Net kâr marjı: %10.0
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+20.9 büyüdü (834.0M TWD)
FAVÖK marjı: %12.2
Toplam borç %+4181.7 arttı → 1.4B TWD
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -107.0M TWD (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.25x
Cari oran: 1.46x — yeterli likidite
Nakit %-52.7 azaldı → 1.5B TWD
İşletme nakit akışı negatif: -2.7B TWD
Serbest nakit akışı negatif: -2.7B TWD — yatırımlar nakdi aşıyor
ROE: %12.6
ROA: %4.3
Toplam varlıklar %+29.9 büyüdü → 16.0B TWD
Özkaynak %+14.2 arttı → 5.4B TWD
İşletme kârı pozitif: 840.4M TWD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+19.9
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 94.5x (Faiz: 8.8M TWD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 71.7M TWD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 4.9B TWD
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %+7.9
CAPEX: 4.0M TWD (Hasılatın %0.1'i)
Son 6 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 üzerinde: %+45.8 — teknik trend olumlu
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 406.66 TWD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%10.0
Net profit margin %10.0 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter +4.0 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%32.0
ROE %32.0 — high return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%12.2
EBITDA margin %12.2 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%18.9
Gross profit per revenue %18.9. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-13.1
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-13.1'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
25.5x
Sector: 27.4x
F/K 25.5x — sector median (27.4x) near reasonable levels.
P/B Ratio
7.66x
Sector: 3.45x
PD/DD 7.66x — sector median's %122 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
20.1x
Sector: 14.9x
EV/EBITDA 20.1x — sector median's (14.9x) %35 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.46x
Current ratio 1.46x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.7x
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.7x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.25x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
133.4x
Interest coverage 133.4x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+9.2
Revenue YoY %9.2 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+234.6
Net profit YoY %234.6 increased (2026/6) — extraordinary profit growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
51/100
Moderate robustness (51/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-20.4%
Minus %20.4 expected value (461.69) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 768.04 | P/B target: 287.43 | EV/EBITDA target: 429.69 | DCF target: 255.76
Damodaran Valuation
51/100
Moderate Damodaran score (51/100). ROIC (%34.2) – WACC (%12.8) difference +21.3 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
90/100
Low debt risk (90/100). Interest coverage ratio 133.4x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 0.7x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 87/100 | Debt Service: 87/100 | Quality: 82/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%34.2
ROIC (%34.2) cost of capital 21.3 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %12.8
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
255.76
DCF (255.76) current price %55.9 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 580.00
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
Weak Piotroski (2/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
NT$196.7
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
25.5x
vs 27.4x
Sector median's %7 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
7.66x
vs 3.45x
Compared to sector %122 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
20.1x
vs 14.9x
Compared to sector %35 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%34.2
vs %12.8 WACC
ROIC 21.3 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%5.5
vs %6.9 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %5.5
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Uptrend
Price (593.00), TRAMA-99 line's %45.8 above. Strong uptrend continues. Technical momentum positive.
Price:: 593.00
TRAMA: 406.66
Difference: %+45.8
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
7711 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.