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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
81/100
Very Strong
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
77/100
Dalio Risk ?
63/100
Piotroski ?
7/9
Strong
Graham ?
HK$5.0
Ucuz
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
75/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Güçlü (75/100)
Temel göstergelerin büyük çoğunluğu pozitif. Kârlılık, büyüme ve değerleme açısından güçlü görünüm. | Kısa Vade: Nötr | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 8 | Negatif: 4 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$298M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+0.0). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+1224.7 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
Yıllık Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Yıllık hasılat %+80.1 arttı. Şirket büyüyor.
Çok Düşük Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı sadece %2.9. Küçük bir maliyet artışı şirketi zarara sokabilir.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından HK$4.0B fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Kârlı ama Nakit Üretemiyor
Net kâr pozitif (HK$298M) ama FCF negatif (-HK$288M). Yatırım harcamaları yüksek veya alacak birikimi var.
Çok Düşük F/K
Trailing F/K: 5.1. Piyasa şirketi kârına göre düşük fiyatlıyor. Ucuz görünüyor ama sebebi araştırılmalı.
Defter Değerinin Altında
PD/DD: 0.51. Hisse defter değerinin altında işlem görüyor. Değer tuzağı mı yoksa fırsat mı iyi analiz edilmeli.
Düşük EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 1.1. Operasyonel kârlılığa göre ucuz değerleme.
Düşük ROE
ROE: %4.9. Sermaye getirisi yetersiz — enflasyonun altında.
Lothien Sağlamlık Skoru: 81/100
Bileşik algoritma değerlendirmesine göre şirketin finansal yapısı güçlü görünüyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-19.0 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
147 days
Annual Volatility ?
%58.8
VaR 95% ?
%6.96
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%9.48
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%7.73
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%78.0
15.04.2026 → 22.10.2026
Skewness ?
0.29
Parametrik%6.96
Historik%6.40
Cornish-Fisher%6.62
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+127.9%
ROIC ?
10.2%
DCF Value ?
23.37
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Toplam borç: 6.6B HKD
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -973.8M HKD (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı: 0.55x
Cari oran < 1: 0.79x — likidite riski
Nakit ve benzerleri: 7.6B HKD
Ödenmiş sermaye: 3.7B HKD
Net işletme sermayesi negatif: -5.0B HKD — kısa vadeli baskı
Son 4 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-31.9 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 2.42 HKD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%2.9
Net profit margin %2.9 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%4.8
ROE %4.8 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%11.0
EBITDA margin %11.0 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%20.9
Gross profit per revenue %20.9. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-2.8
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-2.8'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
5.1x
Sector: 10.8x
F/K 5.1x — sector median's (10.8x) %53 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio
0.51x
Sector: 1.60x
PD/DD 0.51x — sector median's (1.60x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA
1.1x
Sector: 7.4x
EV/EBITDA 1.1x — sector median's (7.4x) %85 below. Cheap relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
0.79x
Current ratio 0.79x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.5x
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.5x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.55x
Debt/Equity 0.55x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
67.9x
Interest coverage 67.9x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+80.1
Revenue YoY %80.1 grew (2025/12) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+1224.7
Net profit turned from loss to profit (2025/12). Significant improvement.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
81/100
Very strong robustness score (81/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Very Strong
Potential
+127.9%
Plus %127.9 expected value (3.76) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 3.34 | P/B target: 4.95 | EV/EBITDA target: 4.95 | DCF target: 4.95
Damodaran Valuation
77/100
Strong Damodaran valuation (77/100). ROIC (%10.2) exceeds cost of capital, company creates value.
Strong
Dalio Risk Analysis
63/100
Moderate debt risk (63/100). Interest coverage ratio 67.9x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 1.5x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 76/100 | Debt Service: 70/100 | Quality: 45/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%10.2
ROIC (%10.2) slightly exceeds cost of capital (4.0 points).
WACC: %6.2
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
23.37
DCF modeli 23.37 target value produced — compared to current price %1316.5 undervalued.
Current price: 1.65
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
7/9
Strong Piotroski F-Score (7/9). Profitability, leverage and operational efficiency criteria are largely met.
Strong
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$5.0
Graham intrinsic value: HK$5.0. Ucuz
Cheap
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
5.1x
vs 10.8x
Sector median's %53 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
0.51x
vs 1.60x
Compared to sector %68 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
1.1x
vs 7.4x
Compared to sector %85 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%10.2
vs %6.2 WACC
ROIC 4.0 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%2.9
vs %11.0 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %2.9
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (1.65), TRAMA-99 line's %31.9 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 1.65
TRAMA: 2.42
Difference: %-31.9
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
7489 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.