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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
58/100
Strong
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
64/100
Dalio Risk ?
100/100
Piotroski ?
4/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
HK$20.4
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
61/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Güçlü (61/100)
Genel tablo olumlu. Finansal yapı sağlam, bazı riskler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 4 | Negatif: 2 | Nötr: 2
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$872M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Düşüşü
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %-24.7 geriledi (HK$1.2B → HK$872M). Kısa vadede olumsuz sinyal.
Brüt Marj Daraldı
Brüt kâr marjı %59.3 → %55.8 (-3.5 puan). Maliyet baskısı veya rekabet artıyor.
Yüksek Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı %21.5. Her 100HK$ satıştan 21HK$ kâr kalıyor.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından HK$6.1B fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 3.40x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
Makul F/K
Trailing F/K: 13.8. Makul değerleme aralığında.
Mevsimsel Etki
Çeyreklik düşüş (%-24.7) ama yıllık bazda artış (%+19.3). Bu muhtemelen mevsimsel bir düşüş.
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%76.8
VaR 95% ?
%7.86
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%11.16
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%9.43
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%50.7
29.01.2026 → 30.06.2026
Skewness ?
-0.01
Parametrik%7.86
Historik%6.08
Cornish-Fisher%7.53
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-10.6%
ROIC ?
38.9%
DCF Value ?
32.51
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %-24.7 düşerek 871.6M HKD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+19.3
Hasılat çeyreklik yatay kaldı (4.1B HKD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+20.9)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %55.8
Brüt marj değişimi: %-3.5 puan
Net kâr marjı yüksek: %21.5
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-13.2 düştü (1.7B HKD)
FAVÖK marjı güçlü: %43.0
Toplam borç: 962.7M HKD
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -6.1B HKD (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.06x
Cari oran güçlü: 3.40x — yükümlülükler rahat karşılanıyor
Nakit ve benzerleri: 7.1B HKD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 5.8B HKD
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 653.4M HKD
ROE düşük: %5.2
ROA: %2.9
Toplam varlıklar: 29.6B HKD (%+1.6)
Özkaynak: 16.8B HKD (%+0.3)
İşletme kârı pozitif: 1.8B HKD
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 350.5x (Faiz: 5.0M HKD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 1.9B HKD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 8.2B HKD
Yoğun yatırım dönemi: CAPEX/Hasılat %23.8 (967.3M HKD)
Son 5 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 üzerinde: %+9.0 — teknik trend olumlu
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 28.69 HKD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%21.5
Net profit margin %21.5 — very strong. Compared to previous quarter -6.3 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%19.3
ROE %19.3 — moderate return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%43.0
EBITDA margin %43.0 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%55.8
Gross profit per revenue %55.8. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%21.4
TTM Free Cash Flow is %21.4'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
13.8x
Sector: 12.1x
F/K 13.8x — sector median's (12.1x) %15 above. Slight premium.
P/B Ratio
3.54x
Sector: 1.76x
PD/DD 3.54x — sector median's %101 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
Sector: 8.2x
EV/EBITDA 7.7x — sector median (8.2x) in line.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
3.40x
Current ratio 3.40x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.1x
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.1x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.06x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
75.5x
Interest coverage 75.5x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+20.9
Revenue YoY %20.9 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+19.3
Net profit YoY %19.3 increased — positive but moderate growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
58/100
Good robustness (58/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
-10.6%
Minus %10.6 expected value (27.96) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 26.71 | P/B target: 16.44 | EV/EBITDA target: 32.93 | DCF target: 32.51
Damodaran Valuation
64/100
Moderate Damodaran score (64/100). ROIC (%38.9) – WACC (%11.2) difference +27.6 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
100/100
Low debt risk (100/100). Interest coverage ratio 75.5x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 0.1x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 98/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 100/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%38.9
ROIC (%38.9) cost of capital 27.6 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %11.2
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
32.51
DCF (32.51) near current price (%+4.0) near — in fair value zone.
Current price: 31.26
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
Weak Piotroski (4/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$20.4
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
13.8x
vs 12.1x
Sector median's %15 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
3.54x
vs 1.76x
Compared to sector %101 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
vs 8.2x
Compared to sector %5 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%38.9
vs %11.2 WACC
ROIC 27.6 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%24.4
vs %42.4 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %24.4
TRAMA-99 Trend — Uptrend
Price (31.26), TRAMA-99 line's %9.0 above. Uptrend ongoing; monitor for TRAMA approach for trend change.
Price:: 31.26
TRAMA: 28.69
Difference: %+9.0
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
6693 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.