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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
40/100
Moderate
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
45/100
Dalio Risk ?
97/100
Piotroski ?
7/9
Strong
Graham ?
HK$8.7
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
83/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Güçlü (83/100)
Temel göstergelerin büyük çoğunluğu pozitif. Kârlılık, büyüme ve değerleme açısından güçlü görünüm. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Olumlu | Pozitif: 11 | Negatif: 3 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$170M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+189.7 arttı (HK$59M → HK$170M). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+61.9 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %+55.0 arttı (HK$221M → HK$343M). Talep güçlü.
Brüt Marj Genişliyor
Brüt kâr marjı %64.2 → %72.2 (+8.0 puan). Fiyatlama gücü artıyor veya maliyetler düşüyor.
Yüksek Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı %49.5. Her 100HK$ satıştan 50HK$ kâr kalıyor.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından HK$1.1B fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 4.56x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
Borç Azalıyor
Toplam borç çeyreklik %-35.9 düştü. Bilanço güçleniyor.
Güçlü Nakit Üretimi
Serbest nakit akışı (HK$255M) kârın %150'sini nakit olarak üretiyor. Kâr kalitesi yüksek.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+166.9 arttı (HK$74M → HK$197M). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 58.1. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 10.96. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 45.3. Pahalı değerleme.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-53.8 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
129 days
Annual Volatility ?
%111.2
VaR 95% ?
%11.62
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%16.39
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%12.85
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%60.2
30.06.2026 → 22.10.2026
Skewness ?
1.30
Parametrik%11.62
Historik%9.64
Cornish-Fisher%8.08
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-51.4%
ROIC ?
44.3%
DCF Value ?
17.69
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Son 6 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-47.2 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 87.08 HKD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%49.5
Net profit margin %49.5 — very strong. Compared to previous quarter +23.0 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%13.2
ROE %13.2 — moderate return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%57.6
EBITDA margin %57.6 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%72.2
Gross profit per revenue %72.2. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%51.6
TTM Free Cash Flow is %51.6'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
58.1x
Sector: 18.5x
F/K 58.1x — sector median's (18.5x) %214 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio
10.96x
Sector: 2.25x
PD/DD 10.96x — sector median's %387 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
45.3x
Sector: 10.9x
EV/EBITDA 45.3x — sector median's (10.9x) %316 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
4.56x
Current ratio 4.56x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.0x
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.0x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.00x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
824.1x
Interest coverage 824.1x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+36.4
Revenue YoY %36.4 grew (2025/12) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+61.9
Net profit YoY %61.9 increased (2025/12) — extraordinary profit growth.
Seasonality Analysis
Q4 (Eki-Ara)
Historically strongest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 137.4M). Weakest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit 50.8M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
40/100
Moderate robustness (40/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-51.4%
Minus %51.4 expected value (22.41) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 15.56 | P/B target: 11.54 | EV/EBITDA target: 11.54 | DCF target: 17.69
Damodaran Valuation
45/100
Low Damodaran score (45/100). DCF analysis does not support current price.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
97/100
Low debt risk (97/100). Interest coverage ratio 824.1x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 0.0x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 100/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 86/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%44.3
ROIC (%44.3) cost of capital 32.4 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %11.9
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
17.69
DCF (17.69) current price %61.7 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 46.16
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
7/9
Strong Piotroski F-Score (7/9). Profitability, leverage and operational efficiency criteria are largely met.
Strong
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$8.7
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
58.1x
vs 18.5x
Sector median's %214 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
10.96x
vs 2.25x
Compared to sector %387 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
45.3x
vs 10.9x
Compared to sector %316 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%44.3
vs %11.9 WACC
ROIC 32.4 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%34.3
vs %41.7 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %34.3
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (45.96), TRAMA-99 line's %47.2 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 45.96
TRAMA: 87.08
Difference: %-47.2
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
3277 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.