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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
44/100
Moderate
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
42/100
Dalio Risk ?
51/100
Piotroski ?
3/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
HK$4.3
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
67%
Lothien Robustness Summary
51/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Orta (51/100)
Karışık sinyaller. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz göstergeler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 3 | Negatif: 5 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$74M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Düşüşü
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %-35.1 geriledi (HK$115M → HK$74M). Kısa vadede olumsuz sinyal.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+1167.5 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
Güçlü Nakit Üretimi
Serbest nakit akışı (HK$153M) kârın %205'sini nakit olarak üretiyor. Kâr kalitesi yüksek.
FAVÖK Düşüşü
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-32.0 düştü. Operasyonel performans zayıflıyor.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 46.2. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 33.4. Pahalı değerleme.
Mevsimsel Etki
Çeyreklik düşüş (%-35.1) ama yıllık bazda artış (%+1167.5). Bu muhtemelen mevsimsel bir düşüş.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-30.2 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
155 days
Annual Volatility ?
%94.3
VaR 95% ?
%9.58
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%13.63
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%12.33
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%54.3
03.07.2026 → 15.10.2026
Skewness ?
1.04
Parametrik%9.58
Historik%7.20
Cornish-Fisher%6.94
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-9.8%
ROIC ?
5.0%
DCF Value ?
55.56
Debt Cycle?
Geç Genişleme
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %-35.1 düşerek 74.5M HKD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+1167.5
Hasılat çeyreklik %+11.9 büyüdü (1.6B HKD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi ılımlı (%+4.3)
Brüt kâr marjı: %33.1
Brüt marj değişimi: %+2.7 puan
Net kâr marjı düşük: %4.7
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-32.0 düştü (122.9M HKD)
FAVÖK marjı düşük: %7.7
Toplam borç: 4.1B HKD
Net borç hasılatın üzerinde: 1.9B HKD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı: 1.06x
Cari oran: 1.28x — yeterli likidite
Nakit ve benzerleri: 2.1B HKD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 670.5M HKD
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 152.7M HKD
ROE düşük: %1.9
ROA düşük: %0.6
Toplam varlıklar: 12.3B HKD (%-1.9)
Özkaynak: 3.8B HKD (%+1.2)
İşletme kârı pozitif: 152.1M HKD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+55.3
Faiz karşılama oranı: 3.5x (Faiz: 35.5M HKD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 967.8M HKD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 1.7B HKD
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %+21.4
CAPEX: 71.6M HKD (Hasılatın %4.5'i)
Son 3 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-23.8 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 17.34 HKD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%4.7
Net profit margin %4.7 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter -3.4 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%5.4
ROE %5.4 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%7.7
EBITDA margin %7.7 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%33.1
Gross profit per revenue %33.1. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-2.9
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-2.9'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
46.2x
Sector: 12.3x
F/K 46.2x — sector median's (12.3x) %276 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio
3.33x
Sector: 1.54x
PD/DD 3.33x — sector median's %116 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
33.4x
Sector: 7.6x
EV/EBITDA 33.4x — sector median's (7.6x) %339 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.28x
Current ratio 1.28x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
9.3x
Net Debt/EBITDA 9.3x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity
1.06x
Debt/Equity 1.06x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
2.6x
Interest coverage 2.6x — limited buffer. May tighten if profitability drops.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+4.3
Revenue YoY %4.3 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+1167.5
Net profit turned from loss to profit (2026/6). Significant improvement.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
44/100
Moderate robustness (44/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-9.8%
Minus %9.8 expected value (11.93) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %67.
Components: PE target: 3.31 | P/B target: 6.18 | EV/EBITDA target: 3.31 | DCF target: 39.66
Damodaran Valuation
42/100
Low Damodaran score (42/100). ROIC (%5.0) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
51/100
Moderate debt risk (51/100). Interest coverage ratio 2.6x — acceptable. Debt/EBITDA 9.3x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 37/100 | Debt Service: 61/100 | Quality: 56/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%5.0
ROIC (%5.0) cost of capital (9.7%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %9.7
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
55.56
DCF modeli 55.56 target value produced — compared to current price %320.3 undervalued.
Current price: 13.22
Debt Cycle Phase
Geç Genişleme
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Weak Piotroski (3/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$4.3
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
46.2x
vs 12.3x
Sector median's %276 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
3.33x
vs 1.54x
Compared to sector %116 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
33.4x
vs 7.6x
Compared to sector %339 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%5.0
vs %9.7 WACC
ROIC 4.7 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%3.5
vs %7.6 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %3.5
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (13.22), TRAMA-99 line's %23.8 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 13.22
TRAMA: 17.34
Difference: %-23.8
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
2715 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.