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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
32/100
Weak
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
20/100
Dalio Risk ?
95/100
Piotroski ?
3/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
HK$21.3
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
51/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Orta (51/100)
Karışık sinyaller. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz göstergeler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 5 | Negatif: 4 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$40M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%-17.7). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yıllık Kâr Geriledi
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %-42.5 düştü. Uzun vadede endişe verici.
Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %+28.4 arttı (HK$419M → HK$538M). Talep güçlü.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından HK$1.8B fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 6.08x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 46.1. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 33.6. Pahalı değerleme.
Düşük ROE
ROE: %2.9. Sermaye getirisi yetersiz — enflasyonun altında.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+16.4 artabilir (HK$40M → HK$46M).
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
155 days
Annual Volatility ?
%92.0
VaR 95% ?
%9.77
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%13.72
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%9.90
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%71.4
10.03.2026 → 16.10.2026
Skewness ?
1.60
Parametrik%9.77
Historik%8.00
Cornish-Fisher%6.20
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-44.7%
ROIC ?
5.0%
DCF Value ?
6.83
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %-17.7 düşerek 39.5M HKD oldu
Yıllık net kâr %-42.5 geriledi
Hasılat çeyreklik %+28.4 büyüdü (538.2M HKD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+9.5)
Brüt kâr marjı: %30.3
Net kâr marjı: %7.3
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-12.5 düştü (45.4M HKD)
FAVÖK marjı düşük: %8.4
Toplam borç: 165.1M HKD
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -1.8B HKD (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.03x
Cari oran güçlü: 6.08x — yükümlülükler rahat karşılanıyor
Nakit %+75.0 arttı → 1.9B HKD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 245.2M HKD
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 29.0M HKD
ROE düşük: %0.7
ROA düşük: %0.6
Toplam varlıklar: 6.9B HKD (%+0.4)
Özkaynak: 5.9B HKD (%-1.3)
İşletme kârı pozitif: 63.5M HKD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+82.3
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 47.8x (Faiz: 950,451 HKD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 267.6M HKD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 4.5B HKD
CAPEX: 81.0M HKD (Hasılatın %15.0'i)
Son 5 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 hafif altında: %-1.7
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 40.49 HKD
Likit varlık ağırlığı yüksek: Dönen varlıklar toplam varlıkların %77'i
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%7.3
Net profit margin %7.3 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter -4.1 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%2.9
ROE %2.9 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%8.4
EBITDA margin %8.4 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%30.3
Gross profit per revenue %30.3. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%0.1
TTM Free Cash Flow is %0.1'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
46.1x
Sector: 12.3x
F/K 46.1x — sector median's (12.3x) %275 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio
1.79x
Sector: 1.54x
PD/DD 1.79x — sector median's (1.54x) %16 above.
EV/EBITDA
33.6x
Sector: 7.6x
EV/EBITDA 33.6x — sector median's (7.6x) %342 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
6.08x
Current ratio 6.08x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.6x
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.6x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.03x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
120.3x
Interest coverage 120.3x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+9.5
Revenue YoY %9.5 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-42.5
Net profit YoY %-42.5 declined (2026/6) — serious profit erosion.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
32/100
Weak robustness (32/100). Valuation metrics and/or debt profile are unfavorable; caution is needed.
Weak
Potential
-44.7%
Minus %44.7 expected value (22.02) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 10.07 | P/B target: 34.38 | EV/EBITDA target: 9.95 | DCF target: 9.95
Damodaran Valuation
20/100
Low Damodaran score (20/100). ROIC (%5.0) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
95/100
Low debt risk (95/100). Interest coverage ratio 120.3x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 0.6x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 96/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 81/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%5.0
ROIC (%5.0) cost of capital (11.6%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %11.6
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
6.83
DCF (6.83) current price %82.8 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 39.80
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Weak Piotroski (3/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$21.3
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
46.1x
vs 12.3x
Sector median's %275 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
1.79x
vs 1.54x
Compared to sector %16 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
33.6x
vs 7.6x
Compared to sector %342 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%5.0
vs %11.6 WACC
ROIC 6.5 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%12.2
vs %13.3 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %12.2
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (39.80), TRAMA-99 line (40.49) at close levels (%-1.7). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 39.80
TRAMA: 40.49
Difference: %-1.7
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
2692 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.