2658Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor Co., Ltd.

🇭🇰 Hong Kong Borsası
46.36
HKD
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
31/100
Weak
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
26/100
DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik)
Dalio Risk ?
54/100
Piotroski ?
5/9
Neutral
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.1661 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
2/4
Confidence?
51%
Lothien Robustness Summary
34/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Zayıf (34/100)
Olumsuz göstergeler ağır basıyor. Finansal yapıda zayıflıklar mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Nötr | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 1 | Negatif: 4 | Nötr: 2
Net Zarar
Son çeyrekte -HK$16M zarar açıklandı. Yatırımcı dikkatli olmalı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+0.0). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+88.7 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 5.71. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 220.7. Pahalı değerleme.
Negatif ROE
ROE: %-1.0. Şirket özsermayesini eritiyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-404.3 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.

Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-23
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Çok Yüksek
215 days
Annual Volatility ?
%73.8
VaR 95% ?
%7.48
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%10.65
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%7.06
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%47.4
27.05.2026 → 14.09.2026
Skewness ?
1.89
Parametrik%7.48
Historik%5.61
Cornish-Fisher%3.94
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-36.7%
ROIC ?
-0.3%
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Son 6 çeyrek ardışık zarar
Fiyat TRAMA-99 üzerinde: %+6.4 — teknik trend olumlu
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 43.57 HKD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin %-7.8
Net profit margin %-7.8 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %-1.0
ROE %-1.0 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin %17.1
EBITDA margin %17.1 — good operational performance.
Gross Profit Margin %18.8
Gross profit per revenue %18.8. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %-139.3
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-139.3'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/B Ratio 5.71x Sector: 2.25x
PD/DD 5.71x — sector median's %154 above. Expensive book value.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 1.94x
Current ratio 1.94x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA 30.7x
Net Debt/EBITDA 30.7x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity 0.85x
Debt/Equity 0.85x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage 0.9x
Interest coverage 0.9x — critical level. Risk of difficulty in interest payments.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+36.5
Revenue YoY %36.5 grew (2025/12) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %+88.7
Loss %88.7 decreased — improvement continues.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
31/100
Weak robustness (31/100). Valuation metrics and/or debt profile are unfavorable; caution is needed.
Weak
Potential
-36.7%
Minus %36.7 expected value (29.33) vs current price comparison. 2/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %51.
Components: P/B target: 17.78 | EV/EBITDA target: 11.59
Damodaran Valuation
26/100
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
54/100
Moderate debt risk (54/100). Interest coverage ratio 0.9x — weak, fragile. Debt/EBITDA 30.7x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 29/100 | Debt Service: 60/100 | Quality: 27/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%-0.3
ROIC (%-0.3) cost of capital (10.7%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %10.7
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
Moderate Piotroski (5/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing.
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.1661 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
5.71x vs 2.25x
Compared to sector %154 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
220.7x vs 10.9x
Compared to sector %1927 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%-0.3 vs %10.7 WACC
ROIC 11.1 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-19.2 vs %6.6 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-19.2
TRAMA-99 Trend — Uptrend
Price (46.36), TRAMA-99 line's %6.4 above. Uptrend ongoing; monitor for TRAMA approach for trend change.
Price:: 46.36
TRAMA: 43.57
Difference: %+6.4
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
2658 — Participation Finance Compliance
Loading…
The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.