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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
58/100
Strong
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
61/100
Dalio Risk ?
32/100
Piotroski ?
3/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
HK$8.8
Makul
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
72%
Lothien Robustness Summary
52/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Orta (52/100)
Karışık sinyaller. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz göstergeler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumsuz | Uzun Vade: Olumlu | Pozitif: 5 | Negatif: 4 | Nötr: 3
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$242M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%-3.7). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+448.3 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Düşüş
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr düşüyor. Aşağı trend endişe verici. Sonraki çeyreğe dikkat.
Yıllık Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Yıllık hasılat %+82.4 arttı. Şirket büyüyor.
Orta Seviye Borç
Net borç/özkaynak 1.49x. Yönetilebilir seviyede ama takip edilmeli.
Kârlı ama Nakit Üretemiyor
Net kâr pozitif (HK$242M) ama FCF negatif (-HK$1.1B). Yatırım harcamaları yüksek veya alacak birikimi var.
Makul F/K
Trailing F/K: 9.6. Makul değerleme aralığında.
Defter Değerinin Altında
PD/DD: 0.89. Hisse defter değerinin altında işlem görüyor. Değer tuzağı mı yoksa fırsat mı iyi analiz edilmeli.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 16.4. Pahalı değerleme.
Özkaynak Büyümesi
Özkaynak çeyreklik %+70.2 arttı. Şirket içsel birikimle güçleniyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-55.2 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%76.8
VaR 95% ?
%8.06
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%11.35
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%8.95
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%71.3
05.05.2026 → 22.10.2026
Skewness ?
1.21
Parametrik%8.06
Historik%6.58
Cornish-Fisher%5.78
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+22.0%
ROIC ?
4.5%
DCF Value ?
44.54
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik yatay seyrede (241.9M HKD, %-3.7)
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+448.3
Hasılat çeyreklik %+5.9 büyüdü (4.3B HKD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+82.4)
Brüt kâr marjı: %20.3
Net kâr marjı: %5.6
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+6.7 büyüdü (436.2M HKD)
FAVÖK marjı düşük: %10.0
Toplam borç %+11.7 arttı → 15.7B HKD
Net borç hasılatın üzerinde: 9.0B HKD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı yüksek: 2.58x
Cari oran: 1.17x — yeterli likidite
Nakit %+60.7 arttı → 6.6B HKD
İşletme nakit akışı negatif: -1.5B HKD
Serbest nakit akışı negatif: -1.1B HKD — yatırımlar nakdi aşıyor
ROE düşük: %4.0
ROA düşük: %0.8
Toplam varlıklar %+26.6 büyüdü → 31.4B HKD
Özkaynak %+70.2 arttı → 6.1B HKD
İşletme kârı pozitif: 484.1M HKD
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 4.1x (Faiz: 107.0M HKD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 791.1M HKD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 2.8B HKD
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %+777.3
CAPEX: 236.0M HKD (Hasılatın %5.4'i)
Son 2 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-32.1 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 10.06 HKD
Likit varlık ağırlığı yüksek: Dönen varlıklar toplam varlıkların %62'i
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%5.6
Net profit margin %5.6 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter -0.6 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%8.7
ROE %8.7 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%10.0
EBITDA margin %10.0 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%20.3
Gross profit per revenue %20.3. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-27.0
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-27.0'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
9.6x
Sector: 9.3x
F/K 9.6x — sector median's (9.3x) %4 above. Slight premium.
P/B Ratio
0.89x
Sector: 1.11x
PD/DD 0.89x — sector median (1.11x) below or near. Reasonable valuation.
EV/EBITDA
16.4x
Sector: 7.6x
EV/EBITDA 16.4x — sector median's (7.6x) %116 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.17x
Current ratio 1.17x — borderline, attention required.
Net Debt / EBITDA
17.8x
Net Debt/EBITDA 17.8x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity
2.58x
Debt/Equity 2.58x — high leverage. Sensitive to debt cycle changes.
Interest Coverage
2.2x
Interest coverage 2.2x — limited buffer. May tighten if profitability drops.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+82.4
Revenue YoY %82.4 grew (2026/6) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+448.3
Net profit turned from loss to profit (2026/6). Significant improvement.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
58/100
Good robustness (58/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+22.0%
Plus %22.0 expected value (8.33) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 6.20 | P/B target: 8.68 | EV/EBITDA target: 3.16 | DCF target: 20.49
Damodaran Valuation
61/100
Moderate Damodaran score (61/100). ROIC (%4.5) – WACC (%3.9) difference +0.6 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
32/100
High debt risk (32/100). Interest coverage ratio 2.2x — acceptable. Debt/EBITDA 17.8x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 7/100 | Debt Service: 55/100 | Quality: 38/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%4.5
ROIC (%4.5) slightly exceeds cost of capital (0.6 points).
WACC: %3.9
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
44.54
DCF modeli 44.54 target value produced — compared to current price %552.1 undervalued.
Current price: 6.83
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Weak Piotroski (3/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$8.8
Graham intrinsic value: HK$8.8. Makul
Reasonable
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
9.6x
vs 9.3x
Sector median's %4 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
0.89x
vs 1.11x
Compared to sector %20 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
16.4x
vs 7.6x
Compared to sector %116 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%4.5
vs %3.9 WACC
ROIC 0.6 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%2.4
vs %6.1 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %2.4
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (6.83), TRAMA-99 line's %32.1 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 6.83
TRAMA: 10.06
Difference: %-32.1
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
2465 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.