2026Pony AI Inc.

🇭🇰 Hong Kong Borsası
39.64
HKD
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
44/100
Moderate
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
19/100
DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik)
Dalio Risk ?
82/100
Piotroski ?
2/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -2.6748 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
1/4
Confidence?
48%
Lothien Robustness Summary
37/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Zayıf (37/100)
Olumsuz göstergeler ağır basıyor. Finansal yapıda zayıflıklar mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumsuz | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 3 | Negatif: 3 | Nötr: 1
Net Zarar
Son çeyrekte -HK$469M zarar açıklandı. Yatırımcı dikkatli olmalı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%-18.7). İstikrarlı seyir.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Düşüş
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr düşüyor. Aşağı trend endişe verici. Sonraki çeyreğe dikkat.
Yıllık Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Yıllık hasılat %+68.8 arttı. Şirket büyüyor.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından HK$2.4B fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 15.94x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
Negatif ROE
ROE: %-9.3. Şirket özsermayesini eritiyor.

Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-23
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Çok Yüksek
236 days
Annual Volatility ?
%70.0
VaR 95% ?
%7.64
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%10.65
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%9.49
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%72.6
09.01.2026 → 22.10.2026
Skewness ?
-0.02
Parametrik%7.64
Historik%7.54
Cornish-Fisher%7.65
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+26.7%
ROIC ?
-17.6%
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %-18.7 düşerek -469.4M HKD oldu
Yıllık net kâr %-12.7 geriledi
Hasılat çeyreklik %+5.8 büyüdü (284.1M HKD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+68.8)
Brüt kâr marjı düşük: %17.5
Brüt marj değişimi: %+1.3 puan
Net kâr marjı negatif: %-165.2 — zarar ediyor
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-12.7 düştü (-515.7M HKD)
FAVÖK marjı düşük: %-181.5
Toplam borç %+16.3 arttı → 149.2M HKD
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -2.4B HKD (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.01x
Cari oran güçlü: 15.94x — yükümlülükler rahat karşılanıyor
Nakit ve benzerleri: 2.6B HKD
İşletme nakit akışı negatif: -345.3M HKD
Serbest nakit akışı negatif: -345.3M HKD — yatırımlar nakdi aşıyor
ROE negatif: %-3.8 — zarar var
ROA düşük: %-3.4
Toplam varlıklar: 13.6B HKD (%-0.9)
Özkaynak: 12.4B HKD (%-2.4)
İşletme kârı negatif: -515.7M HKD — faaliyet zararı
Ödenmiş sermaye: 434.4M HKD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 9.1B HKD
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %+5.9
Son 2 çeyrek ardışık zarar
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-35.6 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 61.55 HKD
Likit varlık ağırlığı yüksek: Dönen varlıklar toplam varlıkların %71'i
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin %-165.2
Net profit margin %-165.2 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter -18.0 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %-9.3
ROE %-9.3 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin %-181.5
EBITDA margin %-181.5 — operational loss.
Gross Profit Margin %17.5
Gross profit per revenue %17.5. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %-197.9
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-197.9'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/B Ratio 1.39x Sector: 2.25x
PD/DD 1.39x — sector median's (2.25x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 15.94x
Current ratio 15.94x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Debt / Equity 0.01x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage -234.5x
Interest coverage -234.5x — critical level. Risk of difficulty in interest payments.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+68.8
Revenue YoY %68.8 grew (2026/6) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %-12.7
Loss %12.7 increased — losses deepening.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
44/100
Moderate robustness (44/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
+26.7%
Plus %26.7 expected value (50.22) vs current price comparison. 1/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %48.
Components: P/B target: 61.68
Damodaran Valuation
19/100
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
82/100
Low debt risk (82/100). Interest coverage ratio -234.5x — weak, fragile.
Leverage: 99/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 26/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%-17.6
ROIC (%-17.6) cost of capital (11.8%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %11.8
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
Weak Piotroski (2/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -2.6748 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
1.39x vs 2.25x
Compared to sector %38 cheaper (by book value)
ROIC vs WACC
%-17.6 vs %11.8 WACC
ROIC 29.5 bps below cost of capital
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (39.64), TRAMA-99 line's %35.6 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 39.64
TRAMA: 61.55
Difference: %-35.6
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
2026 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.