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1828FWD Group Holdings Limited

Finansal Hizmetler
🇭🇰 Hong Kong Borsası
31.16
HKD
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
44/100
Moderate
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
21/100
ROIC banka/finans için tanımsız — mevduat/prim fonlaması borç değil hammaddedir; değerleme öz-sermaye (P/DD) tabanlı yapılır
Dalio Risk ?
87/100
Piotroski ?
6/9
Neutral
Current ratio data missing (C6); gross profit, prev year gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8); Banka/finans: kaldıraç/cari-oran/marj kriterleri uygulanamaz, skor kalan kriterlere göre normalize edildi
Graham ?
HK$31.0
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
72%
Lothien Robustness Summary
60/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Güçlü (60/100)
Genel tablo olumlu. Finansal yapı sağlam, bazı riskler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Nötr | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 5 | Negatif: 3 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$326M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+0.0). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+591.7 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
Güçlü Nakit Üretimi
Serbest nakit akışı (HK$310M) kârın %95'sini nakit olarak üretiyor. Kâr kalitesi yüksek.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 30.6. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Defter Değerinin Altında
PD/DD: 0.81. Hisse defter değerinin altında işlem görüyor. Değer tuzağı mı yoksa fırsat mı iyi analiz edilmeli.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 20.9. Pahalı değerleme.
Düşük ROE
ROE: %1.3. Sermaye getirisi yetersiz — enflasyonun altında.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+26.9 artabilir (HK$326M → HK$413M).

Data date 2026-10-22 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Method How the scores are computed · Scorecard
Data date 2026-10-22
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%27.2
VaR 95% ?
%2.92
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%4.09
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%3.72
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%34.2
13.10.2025 → 07.07.2026
Skewness ?
0.31
Parametrik%2.92
Historik%2.83
Cornish-Fisher%2.72
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-35.7%
DCF Value ?
7.64
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Toplam borç: 25.4B HKD
Net borç: 12.7B HKD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı: 0.52x
Nakit ve benzerleri: 12.7B HKD
Ödenmiş sermaye: 1.3B HKD
Son 6 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 hafif altında: %-2.3
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 31.88 HKD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin %3.5
Net profit margin %3.5 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %1.2
ROE %1.2 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin %6.7
EBITDA margin %6.7 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin %11.5
Gross profit per revenue %11.5. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %3.3
TTM Free Cash Flow is %3.3'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 30.6x Sector: 9.3x
F/K 30.6x — sector median's (9.3x) %229 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio 0.81x Sector: 0.85x
PD/DD 0.81x — sector median (0.85x) below or near. Reasonable valuation.
EV/EBITDA 20.9x Sector: 7.8x
EV/EBITDA 20.9x — sector median's (7.8x) %167 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Net Debt / EBITDA 10.1x
Net Debt/EBITDA 10.1x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity 0.52x
Debt/Equity 0.52x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage 35.6x
Interest coverage 35.6x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+20.8
Revenue YoY %20.8 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %+591.7
Net profit YoY %591.7 increased (2025/12) — extraordinary profit growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
44/100
Moderate robustness (44/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-35.7%
Minus %35.7 expected value (20.01) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 10.11 | P/B target: 32.81 | EV/EBITDA target: 11.64 | DCF target: 7.78
Damodaran Valuation
21/100
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
87/100
Low debt risk (87/100). Interest coverage ratio 35.6x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 10.1x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 50/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 71/100
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
7.64
DCF (7.64) current price %75.4 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 31.10
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
Moderate Piotroski (6/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing. Note: Current ratio data missing (C6); gross profit, prev year gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$31.0
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
30.6x vs 9.3x
Sector median's %229 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
0.81x vs 0.85x
Compared to sector %4 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
20.9x vs 7.8x
Compared to sector %167 higher EV/EBITDA
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%3.5 vs %6.7 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %3.5
↔
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (31.16), TRAMA-99 line (31.88) at close levels (%-2.3). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 31.16
TRAMA: 31.88
Difference: %-2.3
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
1828 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.