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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
51/100
Moderate
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
55/100
Dalio Risk ?
98/100
Piotroski ?
3/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
HK$20.2
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
51/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Orta (51/100)
Karışık sinyaller. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz göstergeler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 4 | Negatif: 3 | Nötr: 2
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$2.6B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%-4.3). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yıllık Hasılatta Daralma
Yıllık hasılat %-14.5 düştü. Şirket daralmada.
Yüksek Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı %29.8. Her 100HK$ satıştan 30HK$ kâr kalıyor.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından HK$45.3B fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 11.68x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
Düşük Nakit Dönüşümü
FCF/Kâr oranı sadece %15. Kâr kâğıt üzerinde, nakte dönmüyor.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 31.6. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 22.6. Pahalı değerleme.
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%40.8
VaR 95% ?
%4.40
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%6.15
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%5.08
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%46.6
16.10.2025 → 11.09.2026
Skewness ?
0.54
Parametrik%4.40
Historik%3.95
Cornish-Fisher%3.91
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-31.1%
ROIC ?
32.6%
DCF Value ?
28.19
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik yatay seyrede (2.6B HKD, %-4.3)
Yıllık net kâr %-15.3 geriledi
Hasılat çeyreklik %-10.1 düştü (8.6B HKD)
Yıllık hasılat daraldı (%-14.5)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %86.0
Net kâr marjı yüksek: %29.8
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-6.2 düştü (2.8B HKD)
FAVÖK marjı güçlü: %32.8
Toplam borç: 79.7M HKD
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -45.3B HKD (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.00x
Cari oran güçlü: 11.68x — yükümlülükler rahat karşılanıyor
Nakit ve benzerleri: 45.4B HKD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 11.5B HKD
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 384.5M HKD
ROE düşük: %3.4
ROA: %3.1
Toplam varlıklar: 83.0B HKD (%-0.7)
Özkaynak: 75.6B HKD (%+1.3)
İşletme kârı pozitif: 2.0B HKD
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 940.2x (Faiz: 3.0M HKD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 6.6B HKD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 53.2B HKD
CAPEX: 1.0B HKD (Hasılatın %11.9'i)
Son 5 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-24.9 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 63.64 HKD
Likit varlık ağırlığı yüksek: Dönen varlıklar toplam varlıkların %70'i
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%29.8
Net profit margin %29.8 — very strong. Compared to previous quarter +1.8 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%10.0
ROE %10.0 — moderate return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%32.8
EBITDA margin %32.8 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%86.0
Gross profit per revenue %86.0. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%13.8
TTM Free Cash Flow is %13.8'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
31.6x
Sector: 20.0x
F/K 31.6x — sector median's (20.0x) %58 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio
4.19x
Sector: 2.38x
PD/DD 4.19x — sector median's %76 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
22.6x
Sector: 11.2x
EV/EBITDA 22.6x — sector median's (11.2x) %103 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
11.68x
Current ratio 11.68x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.0x
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.0x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.00x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
1783.9x
Interest coverage 1783.9x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-14.5
Revenue YoY %-14.5 declined — significant revenue drop.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-15.3
Net profit YoY %-15.3 declined — profitability under pressure.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
51/100
Moderate robustness (51/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-31.1%
Minus %31.1 expected value (32.89) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 31.24 | P/B target: 28.15 | EV/EBITDA target: 23.53 | DCF target: 28.19
Damodaran Valuation
55/100
Moderate Damodaran score (55/100). ROIC (%32.6) – WACC (%8.5) difference +24.1 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
98/100
Low debt risk (98/100). Interest coverage ratio 1783.9x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 0.0x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 100/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 91/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%32.6
ROIC (%32.6) cost of capital 24.1 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %8.5
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
28.19
DCF (28.19) current price %41.0 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 47.76
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Weak Piotroski (3/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$20.2
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
31.6x
vs 20.0x
Sector median's %58 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
4.19x
vs 2.38x
Compared to sector %76 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
22.6x
vs 11.2x
Compared to sector %103 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%32.6
vs %8.5 WACC
ROIC 24.1 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%27.7
vs %31.5 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %27.7
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (47.76), TRAMA-99 line's %24.9 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 47.76
TRAMA: 63.64
Difference: %-24.9
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
1276 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.