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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
54/100
Dalio Risk ?
75/100
Piotroski ?
6/9
Neutral
Graham ?
HK$101.1
Ucuz
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
74%
Valuation
Potential?
+88.0%
ROIC ?
4.6%
DCF Value ?
463.07
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Data
Data ?
6647
2000-01-04 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%25.7
VaR 95% ?
%2.54
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%3.64
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%3.27
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%12.4
28.01.2026 → 23.03.2026
Skewness ?
0.35
Parametrik%2.54
Historik%2.16
Cornish-Fisher%2.31
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (68.90), TRAMA-99 line (65.91) at close levels (%+4.5). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 68.9000015258789
TRAMA: 65.9085
Difference: %+4.5
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%4.2
Net profit margin %4.2 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%1.1
ROE %1.1 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%27.5
EBITDA margin %27.5 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%49.7
Gross profit per revenue %49.7. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%14.9
TTM Free Cash Flow is %14.9'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
22.8x
Sector: 13.4x
F/K 22.8x — sector median's (13.4x) %70 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio
0.48x
Sector: 0.90x
PD/DD 0.48x — sector median's (0.90x) çok below. Defter değerine göre undervalued.
EV/EBITDA
6.0x
Sector: 8.7x
EV/EBITDA 6.0x — sector median's (8.7x) %31 below. EBITDA’ya göre undervalued.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.57x
Current ratio 1.57x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
4.3x
Net Borç/EBITDA 4.3x — high debt burden. Borç servisi baskı oluşturuyor.
Debt / Equity
0.59x
Borç/Özkaynak 0.59x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
6.3x
Interest coverage 6.3x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-0.5
Revenue YoY %-0.5 declined — slight decrease, monitor closely.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-30.7
Net profit YoY %-30.7 declined (2025/12) — serious profit erosion.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
70/100
Good robustness (70/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+88.0%
Plus %88.0 expected value (132.54) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %74.
Components: P/B target: 132.81 | EV/EBITDA target: 102.73 | DCF target: 211.50
Damodaran Valuation
54/100
Moderate Damodaran score (54/100). ROIC (%4.6) – WACC (%5.6) farkı -1.0 baz puan. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
75/100
Low debt risk (75/100). Interest coverage ratio 6.3x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 4.3x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 76/100 | Debt Service: 89/100 | Quality: 81/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%4.6
ROIC (%4.6) cost of capitaln (5.6%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %5.6
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
463.07
DCF modeli 463.07 target value produced — compared to current price %556.8 undervalued.
Current price: 70.50
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
Moderate Piotroski (6/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing.
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$101.1
Graham intrinsic value: HK$101.1. Ucuz
Cheap
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
22.8x
vs 13.4x
Sector mediannın %70 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
0.48x
vs 0.90x
Compared to sector %47 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
6.0x
vs 8.7x
Compared to sector %31 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%4.6
vs %5.6 WACC
ROIC 1.0 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%4.2
vs %27.5 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %4.2
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
0001 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.